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A Tory Revival – And A Yet More Polarised Scotland?

23rd April 2017

Theresa May’s decision on Tuesday to seek Commons approval for an early UK general election means that the strength of her party’s revival north of the border will not only be tested in the local council elections on 4 May, but also in a Westminster ballot five weeks later. Two polls of vote intentions for […]


What Do Voters in Scotland Want from Brexit?

30th March 2017

Scotland voted very differently from the rest of Britain in the EU referendum. It backed the view of the SNP and the Scottish Government that the UK should remain in the EU by no less than 62% to 38%, whereas the UK as a whole voted by 52% to 48% in favour of leaving. In […]


Polls Swing High, Polls Swing Low

17th March 2017

One indication of the dominance of the SNP in the Scottish political firmament these days is that, in what currently is otherwise a climate of relatively infrequent political polling north of the border, no less than four polls have been published during the run-up to the nationalists’ spring conference in Aberdeen this weekend. Two of […]



Did Ms Sturgeon’s Call for IndyRef2 Come in the Wake of a Swing to Yes?

14th March 2017

The First Minister’s dramatic announcement on Monday that she would now seek the authority to hold a second independence referendum in either autumn 2018 or spring 2019 was preceded by two new polls of referendum voting intentions. The first came from Ipsos MORI for STV News last Thursday, the second from BMG Research in The […]


Does Scotland Want a Second Independence Referendum?

2nd March 2017

The Prime Minister comes north tomorrow to address Scottish Conservatives at their spring conference. She does so on the back of reports that the UK government is beginning to get concerned that Nicola Sturgeon might opt to pull the trigger on a second referendum, an expectation since heightened by a speech by the First Minister […]


On Sampling Error

10th February 2017

Much excitement was caused this week by a poll from BMG Research for The Herald which was reported by the newspaper under the headline ‘Support for independence surges on hard Brexit vow’. There was then even more of a flutter when in an interview for UK Business Insider I suggested that the three-point increase in […]


Ms. Sturgeon’s Brexit Difficulties

29th January 2017

The last fortnight has seemingly seen Nicola Sturgeon’s options narrow significantly. The Prime Minister has set out a vision of Brexit that is the very opposite of the Scottish Government’s stated preference to stay in the single market and continue to accept freedom of movement. The Supreme Court has ruled that the UK government is […]


YouGov Mark St Andrew’s Day with Poll on Independence (and more)

30th November 2016

Today is, of course, St Andrew’s Day and the deadline for responses to the SNP’s ‘National Survey’ on how Scotland should be governed. To mark the occasion, The Times commissioned a poll from YouGov on attitudes towards Brexit and indyef2 together with Holyrood vote intentions. Nicola Sturgeon must be wishing that it had not bothered. […]


Our Future Focus: Brexit, Indyref2 and All That

1st November 2016

Long-term users of this site will be aware that it was originally created in advance of the referendum on Scottish independence that was held in September 2014. Funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) as part of its initiative on The Future of the UK and Scotland, the site was part of that […]


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