Comment

Evidence and Confusion: More on Recent Scottish Polling

3rd November 2014

A further tranche of results from YouGov’s poll for The Times was released on Saturday, while additional findings from Ipsos MORI’s poll for STV are also now available. Between them they contain a few points that are worth noting – on independence, more devolution, further referendums and the party battle. Independence Saturday’s Times greeted us […]


Panelbase for the SNP: More on More Devolution and on Labour’s Prospects

6th October 2014

The results of a poll conducted by Panelbase for the SNP have gradually been released during the last few days. There are two principal findings of interest. First, it provides further evidence on people’s attitudes towards more devolution. Second, it provides further evidence on the standings of the parties in the Westminster and Holyrood elections […]


So What Should Be Done About The Vow? Public Opinion and More Devolution

30th September 2014

When the Edinburgh Agreement was signed in October 2012, the UK government declared that it would ensure that the independence referendum would be ‘legal, fair and decisive’. Although some supporters of the Yes camp may be doubtful that the referendum was entirely fair (pointing not least to what they perceive to be some biased media […]


A Remarkable Outbreak of Unity!

17th September 2014

Three polls of voting intentions were released yesterday evening and appear in today’s papers. One was conducted by ICM for The Scotsman, one by Survation for the Daily Mail while the third was undertaken by Opinium for the Daily Telegraph. After undecided voters are left to one side, all three out Yes on 48% and […]


YouGov Report Dramatic Swing to Yes

2nd September 2014

For the most of the referendum campaign, the picture painted by the polls has been one of relative stability.  The results produced by a company in one month have often been much the same as those it had reported the previous month – and were often much the same as those that eventually appeared the […]



Minding the gap – women’s views of independence in 2014

12th August 2014

As we enter the final weeks of the referendum campaign, persuading key groups of voters to back their case becomes ever more important to both the Yes Scotland and the Better Together campaign. Women are one such target group. In fact, some have suggested that women may ‘hold the key’  to the outcome of September’s vote. […]


ICM: Views on the Issues are Proving Difficult to Shift

13th July 2014

A distinguishing feature of the polls that ICM conduct for Scotland on Sunday is that they repeatedly ask many of the same questions each month. As a result, apart from academic exercises such as the British Election Study, they provide us with a unique insight into how much difference the referendum campaign is making to […]


TNS BMRB Portray a Referendum Campaign Becalmed

6th July 2014

Today sees the publication of a second poll to be conducted by TNS BMRB for Sir Tom Hunter’s scotlandseptember18.com website, the stated aim of which is to improve the quality of the referendum debate. Much of the poll is thus about people’s perceptions of the quality of that debate and whether they feel adequately informed […]


A Critical Look at Scotland’s Referendum: Special Issue of Scottish Affairs

3rd July 2014

The journal Scottish Affairs was first launched not long after the Conservatives had won their fourth consecutive UK general election in 1992. The opening lines of Scottish Affairs, number 1 were delivered by the journal’s editor, Lindsay Paterson: The day after the general election last April, a new bit of graffiti appeared on a wall […]


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