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The SNP’s Dilemma

16th October 2015

One of the key lessons of Scottish politics in the last 12 months is that referendums and parliamentary elections can present a political movement that is capable of garnering around half the vote with very different challenges. In a referendum that movement may well fail to win, as happened to Yes in September last year. […]


Scotland A Year On – A Divided Nation?

18th September 2015

Today is the day to take stock of where Scotland stands exactly a year on from an independence referendum that the UK government at least hoped would be ‘decisive’. It hardly looks that way now. For Scotland appears to be divided straight down the middle on the constitutional question on which it voted exactly a […]


Survation Also Show Little Movement to Yes

14th September 2015

As referendum first anniversary fever grows, today sees the publication of yet another poll on how Scots now view the constitutional question. Like the two polls published over the weekend, today’s poll, conducted by Survation for the Daily Mail, asked people how they actually voted in the referendum and the data have been weighted so […]


Weekend Polls Fail to Replicate Summer Surge for Independence

13th September 2015

Regular readers will be aware that recent polls from Ipsos MORI and TNS BMRB have suggested that there has been an increase in support for independence during the course of the summer – and that contrary to all previous polling since March a majority would now vote Yes in a second referendum. However, neither of […]


Another Pre-Anniversary Poll, Another Yes Lead

9th September 2015

Another poll released in anticipation of the first anniversary of the independence referendum, and another poll that suggests that the result would be different if the ballot were to be held now. Last week Ipsos MORI released a poll showing that once Don’t Knows are excluded, 55% now say they would now vote Yes to […]


Ipsos MORI Suggest Scotland Would Now Vote Yes

2nd September 2015

Ipsos MORI have ensured that the new Scottish political season kicks off with a bang rather than a whimper, with the publication today of a poll for STV that says that 53% would now vote Yes in an independence referendum, while only 44% would vote No.  Once the small proportion who said, ‘Don’t Know’, are […]


The Challenge Facing The New Scottish Labour Leader

12th August 2015

Labour’s new Scottish leader is due to be unveiled on Saturday, an announcement that will in effect signal that the holiday season is coming to an end and normal political hostilities will soon begin once more. The announcement will, of course, be made against the backdrop of a divisive UK leadership contest in which the […]


So How Many 16 and 17 Year Olds Voted?

16th December 2014

The Electoral Commission has released its report on the conduct of the Scottish independence referendum today. For the most part the exercise gets top marks. Voters not only turned out in unprecedented numbers, but were also largely satisfied with the arrangements for voting. Underpinning the report is a relatively large post-referendum survey in which 1,852 […]


Survation Add To Labour’s Woes

18th November 2014

Findings from the first post-referendum poll to be conducted by Survation for the Daily Record have been released during the course of the last couple of days. There are two key findings. First, the poll confirms that there has been a major shift of Westminster voting intentions from Labour to the SNP since the referendum. […]


Panelbase on Labour and Independence

7th November 2014

A new poll from Panelbase has now been released by the Wings over Scotland website, which broke new ground during the referendum campaign by crowdsource funding three polls. Conducted during the week ending on Wednesday, the site’s latest poll provides further insight into the state of the race for next year’s Westminster election and on […]


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