16th October 2015
One of the key lessons of Scottish politics in the last 12 months is that referendums and parliamentary elections can present a political movement that is capable of garnering around half the vote with very different challenges. In a referendum that movement may well fail to win, as happened to Yes in September last year. […]
18th September 2015
Today is the day to take stock of where Scotland stands exactly a year on from an independence referendum that the UK government at least hoped would be ‘decisive’. It hardly looks that way now. For Scotland appears to be divided straight down the middle on the constitutional question on which it voted exactly a […]
14th September 2015
As referendum first anniversary fever grows, today sees the publication of yet another poll on how Scots now view the constitutional question. Like the two polls published over the weekend, today’s poll, conducted by Survation for the Daily Mail, asked people how they actually voted in the referendum and the data have been weighted so […]
13th September 2015
Regular readers will be aware that recent polls from Ipsos MORI and TNS BMRB have suggested that there has been an increase in support for independence during the course of the summer – and that contrary to all previous polling since March a majority would now vote Yes in a second referendum. However, neither of […]
9th September 2015
Another poll released in anticipation of the first anniversary of the independence referendum, and another poll that suggests that the result would be different if the ballot were to be held now. Last week Ipsos MORI released a poll showing that once Don’t Knows are excluded, 55% now say they would now vote Yes to […]
2nd September 2015
Ipsos MORI have ensured that the new Scottish political season kicks off with a bang rather than a whimper, with the publication today of a poll for STV that says that 53% would now vote Yes in an independence referendum, while only 44% would vote No. Once the small proportion who said, ‘Don’t Know’, are […]
12th August 2015
Labour’s new Scottish leader is due to be unveiled on Saturday, an announcement that will in effect signal that the holiday season is coming to an end and normal political hostilities will soon begin once more. The announcement will, of course, be made against the backdrop of a divisive UK leadership contest in which the […]
16th December 2014
The Electoral Commission has released its report on the conduct of the Scottish independence referendum today. For the most part the exercise gets top marks. Voters not only turned out in unprecedented numbers, but were also largely satisfied with the arrangements for voting. Underpinning the report is a relatively large post-referendum survey in which 1,852 […]
18th November 2014
Findings from the first post-referendum poll to be conducted by Survation for the Daily Record have been released during the course of the last couple of days. There are two key findings. First, the poll confirms that there has been a major shift of Westminster voting intentions from Labour to the SNP since the referendum. […]
7th November 2014
A new poll from Panelbase has now been released by the Wings over Scotland website, which broke new ground during the referendum campaign by crowdsource funding three polls. Conducted during the week ending on Wednesday, the site’s latest poll provides further insight into the state of the race for next year’s Westminster election and on […]