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Did The Pandemic Boost SNP Support?

16th April 2021

Over the course of the coronavirus outbreak, the polls recorded increased support for independence in Scotland and for the governing SNP– and the party may be returned to government next month with an overall majority, despite the emergence of the new Alba Party competing for nationalist votes on the regional list. The polls have also […]


Three Lessons from the First Campaign Polls

11th April 2021

The election campaign has been put on hold for a few days as a mark of respect for the Duke of Edinburgh, whose death was announced on Friday. On Monday politicians of all parties will come together at Holyrood (and at Westminster) to express their condolences. But where will the parties and leaders find themselves […]


Is Salmond’s unpopularity definitely a barrier to Alba’s chances of success?

29th March 2021

As many commentators have pointed out, the newly founded Alba Party is facing a major hurdle in having in Alex Salmond a leader who is very unpopular with many people in Scotland. But does this mean that the party definitely has no chance of winning a noticeable number of list seats in the upcoming Scottish […]


Why Has Nationalist Support Fallen?

19th March 2021

One thing is clear: support for the SNP and for independence is now consistently lower in the polls than it was at the beginning of the year. In the last half dozen polls support for Yes (after leaving aside Don’t Knows) has averaged 49%, with No narrowly ahead on 51%. This represents a five-point fall […]


Has The Constitutional Wind Changed Direction?

26th February 2021

The wind has seemingly been veering in that direction for a while. However, the latest Ipsos MORI poll for STV, which (after leaving aside Don’t Knows) puts support for independence on 52%, down four points on the company’s previous poll in late November, now provides further confirmation. It now appears that, far from being set […]


New Year, New Polling

27th January 2021

We have now had three polls of voting intentions in Scotland since the turn of the year, one from Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, a second from Survation for the ScotGoesPop website, and a third from Panelbase for The Sunday Times. The last of these was part of polling undertaken in all four parts of […]


The Changed Foundations of SNP Support

27th November 2020

The SNP, whose virtual conference takes places this weekend, could hardly be in finer fettle. Its leader, Nicola Sturgeon, is as popular as she has been any point since taking over the reins six years ago – primarily because of voters’ positive evaluations of her handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Polls of voting intention for […]


Facing More Difficult Circumstances? Prospects for the Scottish Conservatives

20th November 2020

At first glance the Scottish Conservatives, who are meeting in virtual conference this weekend, can look forward to next year’s Scottish Parliament election with a fair degree of confidence. In polls conducted since September, the party has averaged 20% on the constituency vote and 19% on the regional vote. That is somewhat down on the […]


Is Brexit Fuelling Support for Independence?

3rd November 2020

The rise in support for independence is now well established in the polls. The trend first became apparent last year, when the level of support for Yes increased from around the 45% mark at which it had appeared to be stuck ever since the 2014 independence referendum to an average of 49%. This figure then […]


Is Scotland More Egalitarian than England?

29th October 2020

It is often argued that Scotland is more left-wing than England. After all, the relative weakness of the Conservative party north of the border would seem a clear testament to that being the case. And the claim, which has often been made by SNP spokespersons, fits one of the key arguments that the party presents […]


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