30th September 2014
When the Edinburgh Agreement was signed in October 2012, the UK government declared that it would ensure that the independence referendum would be ‘legal, fair and decisive’. Although some supporters of the Yes camp may be doubtful that the referendum was entirely fair (pointing not least to what they perceive to be some biased media […]
12th September 2014
The reporting of polls can sometimes be a curious affair. Only last week a poll from YouGov that put Yes on 47% and No on 53% (after Don’t Knows were excluded) was widely reported as a hammer blow for the No side. Today we have another poll from the same company that puts Yes slightly […]
7th September 2014
Last Tuesday YouGov, hitherto a company that had painted a pessimistic picture of the Yes side’s prospects of winning on 18th September, generated considerable excitement by publishing a poll that showed an eight point swing from No to Yes in just a month. Today they have gone one better by being the first company in […]
12th August 2014
What should we make of the referendum campaign now that polling day is drawing near? That is the question being addressed today by a major ScotCen/What Scotland Thinks conference being held in Edinburgh today. To help us answer the question the event will see the unveiling of initial results from the 2014 Scottish Social Attitudes […]
12th August 2014
As we enter the final weeks of the referendum campaign, persuading key groups of voters to back their case becomes ever more important to both the Yes Scotland and the Better Together campaign. Women are one such target group. In fact, some have suggested that women may ‘hold the key’ to the outcome of September’s vote. […]
18th June 2014
One of the major academic efforts to understand how voters behave in September’s referendum is being conducted as part of an enterprise known as the British Election Study (BES). This study is now 50 years old; each election since 1964 has been graced by an in-depth survey of voters conducted after polling day, while in […]
17th June 2014
Whatever the outcome of the referendum in September, Scotland and the rest of the UK are going to have to find ways of getting along. In the event of a Yes vote, then as envisaged by the SNP at least, an independent Scotland would continue to share a number of institutions with the rest of […]
15th June 2014
Following on from Survation’s poll for the Daily Record on Thursday, two further polls released today appear to provide further evidence that the tide may have begun to flow a bit further in the Yes side’s direction. First, in a poll commissioned by Yes Scotland, Panelbase put Yes on 43%, No on 46%, with 12% […]
11th June 2014
It has appeared to be the case for some time now that the referendum race has become becalmed once more. The Yes side appear to have maintained the gains they made in the winter, but without any consistent evidence of them having made any further subsequent progress. That message is underlined by the latest TNS […]
23rd March 2014
The latest monthly ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday, published today, will do little to smooth the worried brows in the No camp. Once again the message appears to be that the referendum race has become, from their perspective at least, all too close for comfort. The poll puts Yes on 39%, No on 46%. […]