Comment

Now the Don’t Knows Have It! New TNS-BMRB Poll

4th September 2013

What a week! And it is only half over! On Sunday YouGov told us that Scotland was swinging towards No. On Monday Panelbase advised us that the country was swinging decisively in the Yes camp’s direction.  And, now, what do we learn today from TNS-BMRB? – that far from swinging either Yes or No Scotland […]


SNP/Panelbase Poll Shows One Point Yes Lead

2nd September 2013

Well, at last we have a referendum poll that is generating some excitement. Hitherto every poll has put the No side ahead, and indeed often (as in Sunday’s YouGov poll for Devo Plus) quite a long way ahead.  Many a commentator has been wondering whether the contest is already all over bar the shouting. But […]


Does Devo Plus poll show No need to offer more devolution?

1st September 2013

In commissioning the YouGov poll they have published today, the Devo Plus group were hoping to demonstrate that the unionist parties need to come up with clear proposals for more powers for Holyrood this side of referendum polling day in order to ensure that the future of the Union is secure. Alas for them, the […]


Wings Over Scotland Crowdsource Funded Poll

12th August 2013

An interesting new development for polling in Scotland over the weekend. Concerned about the paucity of published polls about the referendum, the pro-independence website, Wings Over Scotland, raised from its own readers the funds needed to commission a poll from Panelbase. To the best of my knowledge this is the first time that a conventional […]


Nationalists for No: The Real Referendum Battleground?

8th August 2013

Rather a lot of political excitement has been caused recently by claims that the Labour for Independence campaign was a front populated by current and/or recent SNP activists rather than a grassroots organization consisting of genuine Labour members – see, for example, these articles by Severin Carrell and Tom Gordon. Apart from casting aspersions on […]


Panelbase July Poll

1st August 2013

Just when Scotland’s politicians – and its psephologists – thought it was safe to lie in the sun and forget about the referendum for a while, up popped the Sunday Times last weekend with its Panelbase July poll. So apologies that it has taken us a little while to catch up with what was the first regular public […]


Is the independence movement a child of university expansion?

16th July 2013

One of the great social revolutions of our time has been the expansion of higher education. In the Scottish Election Surveys of the 1970s, just 9% of adults had gained a higher-education qualification. In the Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) survey of 2012, the figure had quadrupled to 36%. This massive change has occurred in parallel with […]


‘Young people cannot be trusted with political decisions’ – Why actually?

19th June 2013

The minimum voting age for the Scottish independence referendum will be 16 rather than the usual one of 18. Many commentators have expressed strong views on whether this is a good idea or not. On the one hand it has been argued that younger people can judge the merits of or problems with independence just […]


Yes are behind – but how far?

19th June 2013

Eight polls have so far been conducted since the Scottish Government accepted in January that the question on the referendum ballot paper should read, ‘Should Scotland be an independent country’, as recommended by the Electoral Commission.  Every single one of those polls, conducted by no less than five different companies, has put the Yes side […]


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