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Runes from the Polls as the SNP Meet Again

26th November 2021

The SNP meet (virtually) again this weekend for their second conference in three months. But have the polls changed significantly since the party’s previous conference in September, just before the seventh anniversary of the 2014 independence referendum? There is little sign of any erosion of the party’s dominance of vote intentions. Three polls of vote […]


Autumn Leaves

7th October 2021

Last month marked the seventh anniversary of the independence referendum held on 18 September 2014. Earlier in the month there was an online SNP conference – though the party is planning another one at the end of November! – while just before the month began the SNP and the Greens concluded a deal that saw […]


A Question of Timing

8th September 2021

Now that the summer is over, Scottish politics is kicking back into life. Last week witnessed the sealing of the agreement between the SNP and the Greens as a result of which the two Green co-leaders, Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater, have joined the government. The SNP are now assured of the Greens’ backing on […]


YouGov Confirm Yes Ahead

12th August 2020

Until now, all of the evidence that there has been a further swing in favour of independence in recent months has come from just one pollster – Panelbase. In the absence of any other polling, it was not unreasonable to ask whether, perhaps, they might just possibly have got it wrong, though the reaction of […]


Brexit Day Polls Show Increased Support for Yes

7th February 2020

Brexit day was greeted north of the border with as many as three polls of how people would vote in another independence referendum – one from YouGov, one from Survation, and one from Panelbase. Between them they appeared to confirm the already substantial evidence that the pursuit of Brexit is undermining popular support for the […]


Does Scotland Want IndyRef2 This Year?

17th January 2020

The outcome of last month’s general election has paved the way for a constitutional confrontation between the UK and the Scottish Governments. The success of the Conservatives in winning an overall parliamentary majority of 80 has ensured that the UK will leave the EU at the end of this month. But equally, the success of […]


Can The SNP Meet The Three Conditions For An Independence Yes Vote?

14th October 2019

The message from the polls continues to be promising for the SNP, who are gathered this week in Aberdeen for their autumn conference. But the path towards holding a second independence referendum that delivers a majority vote for Yes still potentially contains many sharp corners and diversions. Three conditions are likely to have to be […]


Twenty Years of Devolution: A Lesson in the Law of Unintended Consequences?

6th May 2019

Twenty years ago today, Scots went to the polls to elect their new devolved Scottish Parliament. Although in specifying that the new parliament should be elected by a system of proportional representation Labour had accepted that it might not be able to win an overall majority and might need to share power with the Liberal […]


A Tale of Two Scenarios: Actual and Hypothetical Independence Polling

8th October 2018

Almost inevitably, the SNP conference has occasioned something of a flurry of polling. After nearly three months without any polls of voting intentions in an election or any future  independence referendum, yesterday two polls commissioned by newspapers were published, one by Panebase for Sunday Times Scotland, and one by Survation for the Sunday Post In […]


A Question of Focus? The Choices Facing the SNP

6th June 2018

The SNP seems set to start its conference in Aberdeen on Friday in a somewhat uncertain mood. Now just over two years into its third term in office, the party has to decide what to do with the three years that it has left before it has to face the voters again. Should it try […]


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