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Why Has Nationalist Support Fallen?

19th March 2021

One thing is clear: support for the SNP and for independence is now consistently lower in the polls than it was at the beginning of the year. In the last half dozen polls support for Yes (after leaving aside Don’t Knows) has averaged 49%, with No narrowly ahead on 51%. This represents a five-point fall […]


Has The Constitutional Wind Changed Direction?

26th February 2021

The wind has seemingly been veering in that direction for a while. However, the latest Ipsos MORI poll for STV, which (after leaving aside Don’t Knows) puts support for independence on 52%, down four points on the company’s previous poll in late November, now provides further confirmation. It now appears that, far from being set […]


New Year, New Polling

27th January 2021

We have now had three polls of voting intentions in Scotland since the turn of the year, one from Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, a second from Survation for the ScotGoesPop website, and a third from Panelbase for The Sunday Times. The last of these was part of polling undertaken in all four parts of […]


Is Brexit Fuelling Support for Independence?

3rd November 2020

The rise in support for independence is now well established in the polls. The trend first became apparent last year, when the level of support for Yes increased from around the 45% mark at which it had appeared to be stuck ever since the 2014 independence referendum to an average of 49%. This figure then […]


Is Scotland More Egalitarian than England?

29th October 2020

It is often argued that Scotland is more left-wing than England. After all, the relative weakness of the Conservative party north of the border would seem a clear testament to that being the case. And the claim, which has often been made by SNP spokespersons, fits one of the key arguments that the party presents […]


Brexit, Coronavirus and the Economy: Three Key Issues in the Independence Debate

20th October 2020

The last week or so has seen the publication of three further polls of attitudes towards Scotland’s constitutional status. Two of them, from Ipsos MORI (for STV News) and from Savanta ComRes, continued the gradual trickle of polls this year of how people would vote in another independence referendum. The third, from Survation (for the […]


A Coronavirus swing in favour of Independence?

5th July 2020

The latest Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times confirms the message of other polls that the company has undertaken in recent weeks for a variety of (pro-independence) clients. Support for independence has grown further, such that, if the polling is correct, Yes might will win any independence referendum that was held now. The poll puts […]


Big Events, Little Reactions?

5th April 2020

The Alex Salmond trial was expected to make political waves. It may eventually do so. But as the trial progressed so the coronavirus pandemic came increasingly to dominate the country’s attention – and eventually bring the rhythms of everyday life, as well as its politics, to a halt. Still, we might be wondering what immediate […]


Nicola Sturgeon’s Brexit Dilemma

5th October 2018

Doubtless the question that delegates gathering at the SNP conference in Glasgow this weekend will have uppermost in their minds is whether Nicola Sturgeon will fire the starting gun for a second independence referendum. When in June of last year she announced that she was putting on hold the Scottish Parliament’s request to Westminster that […]


How Brexit Became A Problem For Nicola Sturgeon

7th June 2018

When the outcome of the EU referendum was announced, it looked at first glance as though it represented a golden opportunity for the nationalist movement. The divergence between the majority Remain vote in Scotland and the majority Leave vote across the UK as a whole provided what must have seemed to nationalists like a perfect […]


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