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Autumn Leaves

7th October 2021

Last month marked the seventh anniversary of the independence referendum held on 18 September 2014. Earlier in the month there was an online SNP conference – though the party is planning another one at the end of November! – while just before the month began the SNP and the Greens concluded a deal that saw […]


Is Brexit Fuelling Support for Independence?

3rd November 2020

The rise in support for independence is now well established in the polls. The trend first became apparent last year, when the level of support for Yes increased from around the 45% mark at which it had appeared to be stuck ever since the 2014 independence referendum to an average of 49%. This figure then […]


Brexit, Coronavirus and the Economy: Three Key Issues in the Independence Debate

20th October 2020

The last week or so has seen the publication of three further polls of attitudes towards Scotland’s constitutional status. Two of them, from Ipsos MORI (for STV News) and from Savanta ComRes, continued the gradual trickle of polls this year of how people would vote in another independence referendum. The third, from Survation (for the […]


Does The SNP’s ‘Growth Commission’ Matter?

24th May 2018

One of the most widely discussed and debated issues in the Scottish independence referendum campaign was whether leaving the UK would be good or bad for Scotland’s economy. Those on the Yes side argued that public policy could be tailored more effectively to Scotland’s distinctive economic needs, while those advocating a No vote claimed that […]


Labour Still Struggling To Secure Second Place

24th April 2016

With little more than a week and a half to go to the Scottish Parliament election (albeit with Labour remarkably still to unveil its manifesto) it seems there is nothing that can stand in the way of a second SNP overall majority. However, the battle for second place is evidently not resolved, as indeed is […]


Weekend Polls Fail to Replicate Summer Surge for Independence

13th September 2015

Regular readers will be aware that recent polls from Ipsos MORI and TNS BMRB have suggested that there has been an increase in support for independence during the course of the summer – and that contrary to all previous polling since March a majority would now vote Yes in a second referendum. However, neither of […]


Evidence and Confusion: More on Recent Scottish Polling

3rd November 2014

A further tranche of results from YouGov’s poll for The Times was released on Saturday, while additional findings from Ipsos MORI’s poll for STV are also now available. Between them they contain a few points that are worth noting – on independence, more devolution, further referendums and the party battle. Independence Saturday’s Times greeted us […]


So What Should Be Done About The Vow? Public Opinion and More Devolution

30th September 2014

When the Edinburgh Agreement was signed in October 2012, the UK government declared that it would ensure that the independence referendum would be ‘legal, fair and decisive’. Although some supporters of the Yes camp may be doubtful that the referendum was entirely fair (pointing not least to what they perceive to be some biased media […]


YouGov Put No (Narrowly) Ahead Again

12th September 2014

The reporting of polls can sometimes be a curious affair. Only last week a poll from YouGov that put Yes on 47% and No on 53% (after Don’t Knows were excluded) was widely reported as a hammer blow for the No side. Today we have another poll from the same company that puts Yes slightly […]


Maybe Yes, Maybe No? New YouGov and Panelbase Polls

7th September 2014

Last Tuesday YouGov, hitherto a company that had painted a pessimistic picture of the Yes side’s prospects of winning on 18th September, generated considerable excitement by publishing a poll that showed an eight point swing from No to Yes in just a month. Today they have gone one better by being the first company in […]


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