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Mr Yousaf’s Conference Challenge

13th October 2023

The SNP leader, Humza Yousaf, faces a difficult party conference in Aberdeen, where his party will round off the autumn party conference season next week. Over the last couple of months the level of support for the SNP at a Westminster election has stood on average at just 36%, the lowest level it has been […]


Searching for Straws in The Gale: The Impact of the SNP’s Financial Woes

27th April 2023

The arrest on 5 April of Peter Murrell, until recently the Chief Executive of the SNP, in connection with allegations about the possible misuse of funds collected by the SNP in 2017 to promote independence has given rise to much speculation about the possible impact of the story on the fortunes of the SNP (see, […]


A Broken Link? Support for Independence and the SNP

11th April 2023

One of the key developments in Scottish electoral politics over the last decade has been a strengthening of the relationship between constitutional preference and party choice. Those who support independence have come overwhelmingly to support the SNP, while those who are opposed have become disinclined to do so. According to the Scottish Social Attitudes survey, […]


An Uncertain Contest: Polling on the SNP Leadership Election

14th March 2023

SNP members are now voting for the next leader of the SNP. Following a tough interrogation by Sky News’ Political Editor, Beth Rigby last night, tonight the contenders will debate each other in front of a live audience on BBC1 Scotland. The polls suggest there is everything to play for, at least so far as […]


Could Labour Profit From Nicola Sturgeon’s Resignation?

16th February 2023

Scottish Labour meet in Edinburgh this weekend in better heart than for a long time. The party outpolled the Conservatives in last May’s local elections, the first time it had done so in a Scotland-wide ballot since 2016. Almost every poll conducted since the beginning of last year has suggested that the party has now […]


A Tale of Two Halves? The Supreme Court Judgement and Attitudes towards Independence

14th December 2022

The Supreme Court judgement that the Scottish Parliament does not have the legal authority to hold a referendum on independence was widely welcomed by unionist politicians. However, so far at least, it seems to have undermined rather than underpinned the foundations of public support for the Union. Four polls of people’s vote intentions in a […]


How Much of a Challenge Do Labour Pose to the SNP?

10th October 2022

Nicola Sturgeon speaks to her party’s annual conference in Aberdeen today facing a rather different political landscape than the one in place a few weeks ago. Four polls conducted in the run up to the conference indicate that the sharp swing from Conservative to Labour recorded in the British polls following the ‘fiscal event’ of […]


Back to the Ballot Box: Prospects for the Local Elections

2nd May 2022

Just twelve months after last year’s Holyrood election, Scotland goes to the polls again this week. This time the ballot is for all 1,226 seats on Scotland’s 32 councils. The electoral system, however, is very different. The local elections will be held using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system of proportional representation that was first […]


Can The Scottish Conservatives Escape Boris Johnson’s Shadow?

18th March 2022

It has not been an easy winter for the Scottish Conservatives, whose conference takes place in Aberdeen today and tomorrow. The spring might not prove any easier either. The party reacted nervously to the ‘partygate’ row that engulfed the Prime Minister before and after Christmas. Most immediately it led to a call from its leader, […]


A Natural Fit? The Greens in Government

11th March 2022

Being a junior partner in government can be a painful and difficult experience. Just ask the Liberal Democrats, who still have to recover from the fallout from their decision in 2010 to enter into a coalition with the Conservatives at Westminster. Yet, so far at least, the decision of the Scottish Greens, who meet in […]


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