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The Constitutional Question Dominates: How Scotland Voted in 2021

19th May 2021

The constitutional question now dominates Scottish politics. And on the answer to that question the country is both evenly divided and sharply polarised. This is the key lesson of the 2021 Scottish parliament election. For once the polls had a good election. The average standing of the parties in the final polls were all nearly […]


Pointers from the Final Polls

6th May 2021

The campaign is over and voters are now heading to the polling stations. The secrets of the ballot box will be unveiled tomorrow and on Saturday. In the meantime, what do the polls suggest we should anticipate when the results are revealed? Five polls have been published in the last 48 hours. In each instance […]


The Changing Role of Identity and Values in Scotland’s Politics

28th April 2021

We are now just over a week away from a Scottish Parliament election that could be considered the most important since the advent of devolution in 1999. Should the pro-independence parties be as successful as the polls predict, they have pledged to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence that could have major constitutional implications […]


Did The Pandemic Boost SNP Support?

16th April 2021

Over the course of the coronavirus outbreak, the polls recorded increased support for independence in Scotland and for the governing SNP– and the party may be returned to government next month with an overall majority, despite the emergence of the new Alba Party competing for nationalist votes on the regional list. The polls have also […]


Three Lessons from the First Campaign Polls

11th April 2021

The election campaign has been put on hold for a few days as a mark of respect for the Duke of Edinburgh, whose death was announced on Friday. On Monday politicians of all parties will come together at Holyrood (and at Westminster) to express their condolences. But where will the parties and leaders find themselves […]


Is Salmond’s unpopularity definitely a barrier to Alba’s chances of success?

29th March 2021

As many commentators have pointed out, the newly founded Alba Party is facing a major hurdle in having in Alex Salmond a leader who is very unpopular with many people in Scotland. But does this mean that the party definitely has no chance of winning a noticeable number of list seats in the upcoming Scottish […]


Why Has Nationalist Support Fallen?

19th March 2021

One thing is clear: support for the SNP and for independence is now consistently lower in the polls than it was at the beginning of the year. In the last half dozen polls support for Yes (after leaving aside Don’t Knows) has averaged 49%, with No narrowly ahead on 51%. This represents a five-point fall […]


Has The Constitutional Wind Changed Direction?

26th February 2021

The wind has seemingly been veering in that direction for a while. However, the latest Ipsos MORI poll for STV, which (after leaving aside Don’t Knows) puts support for independence on 52%, down four points on the company’s previous poll in late November, now provides further confirmation. It now appears that, far from being set […]


New Year, New Polling

27th January 2021

We have now had three polls of voting intentions in Scotland since the turn of the year, one from Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, a second from Survation for the ScotGoesPop website, and a third from Panelbase for The Sunday Times. The last of these was part of polling undertaken in all four parts of […]


The Changed Foundations of SNP Support

27th November 2020

The SNP, whose virtual conference takes places this weekend, could hardly be in finer fettle. Its leader, Nicola Sturgeon, is as popular as she has been any point since taking over the reins six years ago – primarily because of voters’ positive evaluations of her handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Polls of voting intention for […]


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