23rd February 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Today sees the publication of the second poll to be conducted since the announcement that the UK government would not contemplate sharing the pound in a monetary union with Scotland. However, like the first such poll, it needs to be interpreted with caution. The poll, by ICM for Scotland on Sunday, puts the Yes vote […]
21st February 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Last November, we observed that the ‘Yes’ side had a more visible and active online presence than the No’ camp. Since our last blog on this subject, the referendum campaign has intensified considerably, thanks not least to the launch of the Scottish Government’s White Paper on independence at the end of November 2013, the row […]
20th February 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
There are two new polls out this morning. Only one, however,from Survation for the Daily Mail, was conducted after last week’s co-ordinated announcement that Scotland would not be allowed to share the pound with the rest of the UK, an announcement that the No side hoped would bring them a significant boost. The other, from […]
18th February 2014 Comment Expectations of constitutional change
Today we release some further findings and data from the 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes survey. With both Labour and the Conservatives due to unveil proposals for more devolution in the event of a No vote in the referendum, the new material focuses on attitudes towards the prospect of more devolution. A briefing that outlines and […]
9th February 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Hitherto Panelbase have consistently produced the most optimistic estimates of the state of the referendum race so far as the Yes side is concerned. Ever since the exact wording of the referendum question became known a year ago, their polls have consistently put Yes on 44% or 45% once the Don’t Knows are excluded. So […]
7th February 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
There is a new poll from YouGov in today’s Scottish Sun. Its publication also allows us to play catch up with another reading of referendum voting intention that the company slipped out largely unnoticed last week. Neither poll provides anything like as much evidence of a swing to Yes as did the TNS BMRB poll […]
4th February 2014 Comment Site News
Tuesday 18th February 9.30am-11am Raeburn Room, Old College, University of Edinburgh The possibility that Scotland should remain in the UK but that the Scottish Parliament should be given more power over and responsibility for taxation and welfare benefits will not appear on the ballot paper on 18th September. However, the debate on this option continues, […]
1st February 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Survation, the regular (internet) pollsters for the London newsdesk of the Mail on Sunday (though not of the desk in Scotland), have entered the referendum polling fray for the first time this weekend. They put the Yes vote at 32%, No at 52%, with 16% saying Don’t Know (after taking into account people’s reported likelihood […]
1st February 2014 Comment How Scotland should be governed The Scottish independence referendum
At first glance, the poll from TNS BMRB published tonight (conducted on behalf of a new organisation being founded by Sir Tom Hunter, with the aim of improving the quality of the data and the evidence in the referendum debate) presents a very different picture of the state of the referendum race than last week’s […]
26th January 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
One of the most remarkable features of the referendum campaign polls so far has been their stability from one reading to the next. Almost every company’s poll has reported more or less the same proportion of people saying they will vote Yes (and No) as did the last poll conducted by that same company. Now, […]
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