2nd May 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Hitherto most of the polls conducted wholly or partly in April had been conducted by pollsters whose estimate of the Yes share of the vote has typically been towards the higher end of the various estimates. So it was particularly interesting that, thanks to Channel 4 News, last night saw the first release for quite […]
1st May 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
We have seen a tightening of the referendum race during the first few months of 2014. Although ‘No’ remains in the lead in all of the polls and in many still substantially ahead, its share of the vote on average in March and April has been (once Don’t Knows are excluded) just 55%, well down […]
23rd April 2014 Comment Site News
It will come as no surprise to regular users of this site to hear that the most visited page is the referendum voting intention time series. This graph presents the results from all polls that have asked the question that will appear on this September’s ballot paper: ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’ One strength […]
22nd April 2014 Comment Policy issues The Scottish independence referendum
Tonight BBC2 Scotland airs a referendum documentary ‘What Women Want’ that looks at the gender gap in attitudes to independence. Rachel Ormston, who appears in the programme, looks as the current state of the gap – and why it exists. The gap between men and women in their level of support for independence is well […]
20th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The headline results of the two polls published today, one by ICM Research for Scotland on Sunday and one by Survation for the Sunday Post, will doubtless be regarded as encouraging for the Yes side. Some of the details too will do little to dispel the impression that the No campaign is a campaign in […]
16th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The poll from TNS BMRB released today has been widely reported as further evidence that the No lead is narrowing. In truth, it would appear to be further evidence that the No lead has stabilized around the narrower level it has now been at for some weeks. First, though, a note about the timing of […]
10th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
In commissioning and publishing the poll from Panelbase that it released this morning (which showed Yes 40%, No 45%, Don’t Know 15%), the Yes Scotland campaign was doubtless hoping to persuade us that it is on the edge of victory in September. Its press release highlighted the fact that, at 47% (once the Don’t Knows […]
10th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The first installment of the latest monthly poll to be conducted by Survation for the Daily Record is published today. It gives the Yes side reason to pause for thought, while the No side’s recent apparent nervousness should be steadied a little. The poll puts Yes on 37%, down two points on a month ago, […]
6th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Panelbase, the nationalists’ favourite pollster, have a new poll of voting intentions out this morning. It has been commissioned by the pro-independence web site, Wings over Scotland, the third such poll the site has funded via contributions from its readers. The poll puts the Yes vote on 41%, No on 46%. Both votes are up […]
26th March 2014 Comment How Scotland should be governed
YouGov have so far been amongst the more conservative of the pollsters so far as its estimate of the Yes vote is concerned. Since September, most of its polls have put the Yes vote at between 38 and 40 per cent (once Don’t Knows were excluded). Its estimate of the degree to which the No […]
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