15th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
This is an updated and modified version of a blog post that appeared at electionsetc.com on 11th September. The vote intention polls for the Scottish independence referendum seem to have been taken largely at face value by commentators, politicians and even the financial markets. In particular, the roughly equal split of the vote between Yes […]
14th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The excitement generated by the narrowing of the No lead in the polls has unsurprisingly persuaded new media organisations to enter the polling fray. On Friday The Guardian commissioned its first poll of voting intentions in the referendum. Today its stablemate, The Observer, has done the same. That paper regularly publishes Westminster voting intention polls […]
13th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Whereas last weekend the Sunday Times featured a poll from YouGov, for the final weekend of the campaign the paper has returned to its usual stablemate for referendum polling, Panelbase. The company’s latest poll puts Yes on 46%, No on 47%. That means Yes are up two points on Panelbase’s previous poll conducted a week […]
13th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, one by Survation, one by YouGov, one by Panelbase and one by Opinium, The polls were conducted between 9 and 12 September. The following new […]
13th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, two by Survation, one by YouGov and one by Opinium, The polls were conducted between 5 and 12 September. The following new polls have been […]
13th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
ICM returns today to using the internet for its polling, this time for the Sunday Telegraph. Much of the interviewing for this latest poll in fact happened on the same days as that for the company’s poll in Saturday’s Guardian. However, this poll is a smaller exercise than those the company has been undertaking regularly […]
13th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Survation have this afternoon released the result of a poll it has conducted for the Better Together campaign. Just as yesterday ICM released the results of a poll that had been conducted by phone rather than, as the company had done previously, over the internet, so also today’s poll is a phone poll from a […]
13th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Since the YouGov/Sunday Times poll last Sunday, September 7th, reported a narrow Yes lead and prompted the current crisis reaction from both political parties and news organisations, the polls have been very consistent. They have ranged from the Survation poll on September 9th at 47% for Yes to the ICM poll on September 11th at […]
12th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Earlier today, the Guardian released the findings of a poll conducted for it by ICM. Unlike the polls that ICM have been conducting for Scotland on Sunday and The Scotsman, this poll was conducted over the telephone (using random digit dialing) rather than via an online panel. Not least of the reasons for this approach […]
12th September 2014 Comment Expectations of constitutional change The Scottish independence referendum
The reporting of polls can sometimes be a curious affair. Only last week a poll from YouGov that put Yes on 47% and No on 53% (after Don’t Knows were excluded) was widely reported as a hammer blow for the No side. Today we have another poll from the same company that puts Yes slightly […]
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