One of the key debates during the campaign for the 2014 independence referendum, whose 10th anniversary is marked today, was about the implications of independence for Scotland’s membership of the EU. ‘Yes’ campaigners argued that the country would be able seamlessly to remain part of the EU. ‘No’ advocates, in contrast, argued Scotland would have to exit the EU and apply to join anew.
In the event this debate appears to have had little bearing on the choice most voters made. Those who were sceptical about the EU were neither more nor less likely than those who took a more favourable view of the EU to have voted Yes. Equally, two years later there was little difference between 2014 Yes and No voters in their level of support for Remain and Leave.
However, as an analysis paper we publish today shows, in what represents one of the most significant changes since 2014 in the pattern of support for Yes and No, attitudes towards Scotland’s constitutional status and those towards the EU have become increasingly intertwined since the Brexit decision. The latest Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) survey, conducted last autumn, shows that those who say they would vote to rejoin the EU (59%) are nearly three times more likely than those who would prefer to stay out (20%) to say that they would vote Yes in a second independence referendum.
This perhaps is not surprising. The UK’s decision to Leave the EU has arguably meant that the choice with which Scots would be faced in any future independence referendum would be different from the one with which they were presented ten years ago. Then the question was simply whether Scotland should be inside or outside the UK, with both options being put forward by their advocates as being consistent with EU membership. Now, however, the choice would be whether Scotland should be inside the UK, but outside the EU, or inside the EU but outside the UK.
How might voters regard that choice? After all, whatever concerns they may have about the consequences of being outside the UK, being outside the UK is not popular north of the border – as many as 70% of respondents to the latest SSA say they would vote to rejoin. Today’s analysis paper addresses the question by reporting the results of a survey conducted last year via ScotCen’s mixed mode random probability panel in which respondents were invited to say which option would be better for various aspects of life in Scotland.
The results underline the potential importance of the intertwining between the Brexit and the constitutional debate. For it appears that, if forced to choose, voters are more likely to regard EU membership than being part of the UK as the more beneficial prospect, albeit to varying degrees.
For example, just over half (53%) say that Scottish companies would find it easier to sell goods furth of Scotland as part of the EU, whereas less than one in five (18%) reckon this would be true of being part of the UK. The figures are not dissimilar when asked under which scenario the economy would be stronger. While 46% reckon it would be stronger in the EU, only a quarter (25%) opt for being part of the UK.
The gap is not so wide though on other issues. In the case of having more money to spend on the NHS, only 33% feel this would prove to be the case within the EU, while 24% reckon it would be more likely to happen as part of the UK. Meanwhile, when asked about taxes being lower, only 25% said this would happen inside the EU, only slightly above the 23% who reckoned they would be lower as part of the UK.
Moreover, we should note that only on one of these issues did more than 50% say that Scotland would be better off in the EU. In each case many said it would not make much difference either way. And when asked how they would currently vote in another independence referendum, in most instances this group of voters was more inclined to say they would vote No rather than Yes to independence. Sticking with the status quo is perhaps seen as the safer option unless opting for EU rather than UK membership really is regarded by voters as the better alternative.
Still, Brexit has reshaped the independence debate in some people’s minds. However, as yet the relative merits of being in the UK versus in the EU have been little discussed by the politicians. Instead, in the wake of the SNP’s travails, the constitutional debate has become stuck in neutral. Unless and until the relative merits of UK and EU membership are argued and contested, we cannot be sure what voters in Scotland really make of the constitutional choice that would now seem potentially to be before them.
About the author
John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, Senior Research Fellow at ScotCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', and Chief Commentator on the What Scotland Thinks website.
