The graph below shows the latest What Scotland Thinks/ScotCen Poll of Polls of voting intentions in Scotland for the 2015 UK general election and how it has evolved over time.

The latest and final Poll of Polls is based on two polls by YouGov,  one poll by Panelbase, and one poll by Survation.  Between them the four polls were conducted between 29 April and 6 May. The most recent additions are a poll by Survation and a poll by YouGov, the fieldwork for both of which was concluded on 6 May. This is an updated version of the poll of polls dated 6 May published previously following the release earlier that day of a poll by Panelbase.

In the 2010 general election, Labour won 42% of the vote in Scotland, the SNP 20%, the Liberal Democrats 19%, the Conservatives 17%, UKIP 1% and the Greens 1%. If the difference between those figures and the parties’ ratings in our latest poll of polls were to be replicated in each and every constituency,  Labour would win 4 seats, the Liberal Democrats 1, the SNP 54, the Conservatives none, UKIP none, and the Greens none.

About the author

John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, Senior Research Fellow at ScotCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', and Chief Commentator on the What Scotland Thinks website.