The graph below shows the latest What Scotland Thinks/ScotCen Poll of Polls of voting intentions in Scotland for the 2015 UK general election and how it has evolved over time.

The latest Poll of Polls is based on one poll by Survation, one poll by YouGov,  one poll by Panelbase, and one by Ipsos MORI .  Between them the four polls were conducted between 16 and 27 April. The most recent addition is a poll by Ipsos MORI whose fieldwork was concluded on 27 April, the same day as a poll conducted by Survation that was released 24 hours earlier. This is therefore a revised version of the poll of polls dated 27 April.

In the 2010 general election, Labour won 42% of the vote in Scotland, the SNP 20%, the Liberal Democrats 19%, the Conservatives 17%, UKIP 1% and the Greens 1%. If the difference between those figures and the parties’ ratings in our latest poll of polls were to be replicated in each and every constituency,  Labour would win 3 seats, the Liberal Democrats 1, the SNP 55, the Conservatives none, UKIP none, and the Greens none.

About the author

John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, Senior Research Fellow at ScotCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', and Chief Commentator on the What Scotland Thinks website.