The graph below shows the latest What Scotland Thinks/ScotCen Poll of Polls of voting intentions in Scotland for the 2015 UK general election and how it has evolved over time.

The latest Poll of Polls is based on one poll by Survation, one by Ipsos MORI, one by TNS BMRB, and one by YouGov. This revised version, dated 2 February, was published on 10 February following the publication on that day of a poll by TNS BMRB, the interviewing for which concluded on the same day as a previously published poll conducted by YouGov..  Between them the four polls were conducted between 12 January and 2 February.

In the 2010 general election, Labour won 42% of the vote in Scotland, the SNP 20%, the Liberal Democrats 19%, the Conservatives 17%, UKIP 1% and the Greens 1%. If the difference between those figures and the parties’ ratings in our latest poll of polls were to be replicated in each and every constituency, the Conservatives would have not have any seats, Labour 6, the Liberal Democrats 1, the SNP 52, UKIP none, and the Greens none.

About the author

John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, Senior Research Fellow at ScotCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', and Chief Commentator on the What Scotland Thinks website.